Quick answer: According to DWF Labs research covering hundreds of structured token launches (memecoins excluded), more than 80% of projects were trading below their TGE price within roughly 90 days, with typical declines of 50-70%. The primary driver isn't lack of demand: it's airdrop and early-investor unlock selling pressure hitting a market that often doesn't have enough standing liquidity to absorb it.
The 80% Number
DWF Labs' research, drawing on data from Memento Research across hundreds of token launches with real products or protocols behind them (memecoins were excluded from the dataset), found that more than 80% of these projects fell below their TGE price within about 90 days, with declines in the 50-70% range being typical. The study also compared valuation multiples: token projects traded at price-to-sales multiples of roughly 2-16x, versus 7-40x for comparable listed equities. The researchers attributed the gap partly to regulatory accessibility differences that keep institutional capital away from most tokens at launch.
What Actually Drives the Drop
DWF Labs' research points to airdrops and early-investor unlocks as the primary drivers of post-TGE selling pressure, not a lack of underlying demand for the project. That distinction matters: a token can have a genuinely engaged community and a real product, and still get hit by a wave of selling from recipients and early backers who were never going to be long-term holders in the first place.
Hour One vs Day 90
The first hours after TGE are the most fragile part of a token's price history. Organic trading volume hasn't built up yet, the order book is thinner than it will ever be again, and whatever unlock or airdrop schedule is in motion starts hitting that thin book immediately. A sell order that would barely move price against a mature, liquid book can move it substantially against a launch-day book. A visible early drop tends to spook other holders into selling too, compounding the initial move.
By day 90, a token that had active market making support from day one typically shows a very different picture: tighter spreads, a deeper book able to absorb unlock-driven selling without dramatic swings, and a market that's functioning rather than one prone to air pockets, even if the price is still below TGE, which the DWF Labs data suggests is the likely outcome regardless.
What Projects Can Actually Control
Three things are genuinely within a project's control going into TGE. First, unlock and airdrop timing and structure: a cliff-and-vest schedule concentrated right at TGE creates more concentrated selling pressure than a schedule with a gentler ramp. Second, liquidity depth from the first block: a market maker in place before launch, not scrambled together after the first bad day, is the difference between absorbing early selling and getting run over by it. Third, exchange sequencing: see our guide on choosing between Tier 1 and Tier 2 exchanges, since venue choice directly affects how much depth is realistically achievable at launch.
Where EasyMM Fits
EasyMM provides CEX market making from TGE onward: standing in the order book on the exchanges you've listed, absorbing unlock and airdrop-driven flow without the book going thin. That doesn't override the market: it doesn't stop a token from trading below its TGE price if that's where broader unlock pressure and market conditions take it, and no market maker can honestly promise otherwise. What it changes is how that repricing happens: a functioning market with real depth, instead of a series of air pockets.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a market maker prevent a token's price from falling after TGE?
No, and be skeptical of anyone who claims otherwise. A market maker can't create demand or offset a genuine wave of unlock-driven selling. What active market making does is keep the book deep enough that the price moves reflect real supply and demand rather than a thin book amplifying every order into an outsized swing.
When should a project start market making, before TGE or after?
Before, if at all possible. The first hours after TGE are when the book is thinnest and most vulnerable, which is exactly when unlock and airdrop selling tends to hit hardest. Having a market maker already in place means the book has depth from the first trade rather than catching up after a rough opening.
Is the 80% figure specific to a particular type of token?
The DWF Labs dataset specifically excluded memecoins and focused on projects with real products or protocols behind them, so the figure describes structured launches, not the broader (and typically even more volatile) memecoin market.
Launching soon and want liquidity in place before the first trade? Book a strategy session with EasyMM and get a market maker on your order book before TGE, not after the first bad day.
